"Belarus protests: Strikes expected as Lukashenko remains defiant"
Whether or not Lukashenko can stay in power, he's a crippled man. Russia's Putin should be looking at the next generation. Tikhanovskaya was, for all practical purposes, the winner of the Belarus election.
At this stage of the game, Lukashenko has to give Belarus to Russia to stay in power. But Russia would wind up with a population of perpetually hostile people. Instead, Putin should make feelers to Tikhanovskaya. This is not an east vs west game. Get her while she's cheap. The carrot works better than the stick in these sorts of situations. Lukashenko can retire to a dacha, and everybody can be smiling again.